Iowa Elections Market
For the first time since March, Obama is ahead of Clinton in the Iowa futures market. And for the first time ever, he's above 50%. 53.2% to be precise.
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Comments (5)
Proof that those things just summarize poll trends 1/2 :-)
Yes, this just about puts the nail in the coffin for claims that market-based approaches have any predictive value. All they do is average together the strongly held beliefs of their participants, who believed Hillary was the favorite right up to the instant that Obama won the Iowa caucus (even though he won by roughly the amount that the Des Moines Register said he would win by).
An article about prediction markets:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/07/technology/07link.html?bl&ex=1199941200&en=28708f12c54bd08f&ei=5087%0A
Yes but I wonder wheter his support has already peaked. Whatever the outcome, most people would never have imagined that he could come this far.
It doesn't look like there's any evidence for his support having already peaked; his poll numbers continue to improve, as do his winning margins relative to polling data from the start of the year. I welcome the increased specificity of his speech from Houston (this may have been a reaction to the Clinton campaign's accusations of vagueness, but no matter), and believe (and hope) that this will continue to drive his support. I'm afraid that "I wonder wheter his support has already peaked" smacks a little of concern trolling, or perhaps wishful thinking.